Feature article - When the system blocks itself

Fossil-free chemistry requires system design, not just technology, says Erik van Noort, CEO of Copper Lavender

In the chemical industry, carbon is not just something we emit. It is something we build products from. That simple fact makes the transition to fossil-free chemistry fundamentally different from the transition to renewable power.

Decarbonising energy is primarily about replacing a source. Decarbonising chemistry is about replacing a feedstock, defossilising while keeping entire value chains operational, competitive and scalable.

That is where the real challenge begins. Today, much of the innovation effort in carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) remains focused on individual technologies: better catalysts, more efficient electrolysers, improved conversion pathways. These advances are important. They improve efficiency, reduce costs and push technical boundaries. 

However, on their own, they are not enough. The chemical industry does not adopt isolated technologies. It adopts integrated systems. A new process only becomes relevant when it fits into existing industrial logic and into how plants are configured, how value is created, how utilities are shared, how products move through established markets and how risk is managed across entire production sites.

Without that fit, even strong technologies struggle to move beyond pilot scale. This is one of the defining characteristics of the sector. Chemical manufacturing is built on decades of optimisation. Feedstocks, utilities, by-products, heat streams, logistics and downstream processes are tightly interconnected. Changing one part of the system inevitably affects many others.

Taking on fossil systems

A new carbon source therefore has to do far more than prove it works in isolation. It must demonstrate that it can integrate with existing infrastructure, maintain reliability and create value across the wider production chain.

In that sense, chemistry is fundamentally an integration game. Fossil-based chemistry is not competitive because oil and gas are inherently superior molecules. It is competitive because the entire industrial system around them has been optimised for decades. Every sidestream becomes feedstock elsewhere. Every heat stream is reused. Infrastructure, logistics, utilities and downstream chemistry have evolved together into highly efficient industrial ecosystems.

Very little is wasted, except megatons of CO2 released into the atmosphere. That system-level integration is the real reason fossil chemistry operates at today’s cost level. And that also means that no standalone fossil-free solution, however innovative, will beat incumbent systems on economics if it remains isolated.

Fossil-free chemistry only has a real chance when it is designed as an integrated industrial system from day one. This creates an important challenge for how innovation is developed and financed.

Start-ups are expected to prove their technology before industry engages. Industry, in turn, requires evidence of system-level integration before committing. Investors often prefer solutions that are simpler and easier to de-risk early. Public funding programmes frequently require large consortia and administrative structures that can be difficult for early-stage companies to navigate.

Everyone involved is acting rationally. Technology developers focus on technical feasibility. Industrial companies seek to minimise operational risk. Investors look for predictable routes to commercialisation. Funding organisations are expected to manage public resources responsibly. Yet when these incentives are viewed together, they create a structural deadlock.

Breaking the deadlock

The solutions that receive funding are often the ones that are easiest to isolate, explain and de-risk. The solutions that may ultimately create the greatest industrial impact often require integration across multiple actors, assets and value chains before their full value can be demonstrated.

The market says it wants breakthroughs, whereas the system often rewards incrementalism. As a result, the solutions that get funded are frequently too narrow for the real industrial challenge, while the solutions that could compete at system level struggle to reach the proof point required.

The system delivers progress, but blocks acceleration. Encouragingly, this challenge is increasingly being recognised beyond individual companies. Recent Dutch initiatives calling for a dedicated CCU roadmap, as well as broader European discussions around strategic chemical value chains and industrial resilience, point in the same direction. The emerging consensus is that competitiveness will depend not only on technological breakthroughs, but also on the ability to integrate carbon, energy, infrastructure, markets and finance into coherent industrial systems.

The question is no longer whether system integration matters. The question is how quickly we can organise around it. This challenge becomes increasingly important as demand grows for sustainable chemicals across industries including packaging, construction, automotive and consumer products. Customers are seeking lower-carbon materials while policymakers are introducing regulations that encourage industrial decarbonisation.

The market signals are becoming clearer. The pathways for delivering large-scale fossil-free chemistry remain difficult because the innovation ecosystem itself is not yet designed around integrated deployment. If Europe wants to build a competitive fossil-free chemical industry, this pattern needs to change.

Systems come first

The key is to move from a technology-first approach to a system-first approach. Instead of developing carbon conversion as a standalone process step, we need to embed it directly into existing industrial backbones from the outset. That means designing solutions that create value across the entire system—not only at the point of carbon conversion, but also through utilities integration, co-product generation, infrastructure reuse and downstream market fit.

Looking at the entire production ecosystem creates opportunities that are often overlooked. Waste heat can be reused. Existing infrastructure can reduce capital requirements. Industrial symbiosis can improve economics. Supply chains can be redesigned to capture value in multiple places rather than relying on a single process improvement.

These are system-level advantages that cannot be realised when technologies are developed in isolation. It also means aligning technical development, industrial integration, business case modelling and financing logic in parallel rather than in sequence. 

Real acceleration does not come from moving faster within silos. It comes from coordinating across them. This requires closer collaboration between technology developers, chemical producers, investors and policymakers. Demonstration projects need to prove more than chemistry alone. They need to demonstrate that an entire industrial system can function commercially at scale.

This is not simply a question of better chemistry. It is a question of how we develop, validate and scale new industrial systems. Europe has world-class chemistry, engineering capability, industrial clusters and scientific expertise. It has ambitious climate goals and a strong industrial foundation.

The opportunity is clear. To translate that opportunity into globally competitive fossil-free value chains, we need to rethink how innovation is brought to market. Europe needs new integrated industrial logic as well as new technologies. Closing that gap will define how quickly—and how successfully—the chemical industry transitions to a fossil-free future.